A classic late-season SEC showdown carries major College Football Playoff weight when the No. 14 LSU Tigers host the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide. A win for either the Tigers (6-2, 3-2) or Crimson Tide (6-2, 4-2) strengthens its chances for a playoff bid, while a loss creates a steeper path with November still ahead.
Alabama has dominated the head-to-head meetings, winning the last three by double-figures and 13 of the last 15 overall. Lane Kiffin, who was the offensive coordinator for the Tide under Nick Saban from 2014-16, is seeking his first win over Alabama as a head coach (0-5 career), while Kalen DeBoer is 2-0 against LSU. Star Alabama receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams is set to return after missing the past two games.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La. The Tigers are 6-point favorites, while the over/under is 53.5 in the latest Alabama vs. LSU odds. The money line lists LSU at -225 and Alabama at +195.
After simulating Alabama vs. LSU 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model is leaning Over 53.5 points. The Over has cashed in every Alabama victory and in neither of its defeats. The Tigers feature one of the nation's most explosive offenses, scoring at 40.1 points per game. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been steady with 2,173 yards and 17 touchdowns. He will face one of the premier defenses, though the Tide is better against the run than the pass, and LSU can throw it around with the best of them.
Alabama counters with Keelon Russell, who has passed for 2,057 yards with 20 combined touchdowns. LSU has allowed 17 points or less in each win and over 30 points in each loss. The computer projects the Over as the value side 52% of the time. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations.
SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites.
