The 2026-27 college basketball season opens with a busy Tuesday schedule featuring SEC powers Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri as heavy favorites. However, the SportsLine Projection Model and experts are backing several underdogs to cover the spread.
The model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, projects Wofford to cover as a 24.5-point underdog against Tennessee in 64% of simulations. Wofford, coming off a 19-13 season and picked third in the SoCon preseason, covered a similar spread in a 77-64 loss to Tennessee in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Tennessee, preseason No. 8, has lost its top five scorers and failed to win its last two openers against lower-conference teams by more than 16 points.
Sam Houston, a 26.5-point underdog against Alabama, is projected to cover in 54% of simulations. The Bearkats went 22-12 last season, finishing second in Conference USA under coach Chris Mudge. Alabama, preseason No. 20, lost two of its top three scorers and went 6-9 against the spread at home last year.
SportsLine expert Thomas Casale favors Missouri to cover as a 25.5-point favorite over Cleveland State, saying he makes the Tigers -27.5. Casale notes Cleveland State has an entirely new roster of mostly freshmen and smaller-school transfers, and Missouri typically dominates such opponents at home early in the season.
Combining the three picks into a parlay would yield a +608 payout (risk $100 to win $608). The model enters the season on an 11-1 run on top-rated over/under picks and a 28-22 run on top-rated side picks.
