NFL Week 8 features five favorites of -6 or more points, but betting trends show those heavy favorites have covered just 27.5% of the time this season, going 8-21-3 against the spread. The games meeting that threshold are Jacksonville (-10) vs. Indianapolis, Dallas (-7) vs. Arizona, Cincinnati (-12.5) vs. Tennessee, Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, and New England (-7) vs. Miami.
In a notable trend, the last seven meetings between Kansas City and Denver have all gone under the total, with the Chiefs favored by 1.5 points and a 40.5-point total this week. SportsLine's simulation model, which has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since 2024, highlights a five-team parlay paying around 25-1 that includes the over 46.5 points in Jaguars vs. Colts.
For daily fantasy sports, the model's optimizer favors Cowboys running back Javonte Williams and Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins among its top picks for the main Sunday slate. In fantasy football rankings, Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange is projected as a top-eight option at his position.
Among expert picks, Larry Harstein (7-2 ATS over his last nine) backs the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover against the Minnesota Vikings, citing the return of safety Brian Branch and Vikings running back Aaron Jones' knee injury. Emory Hunt (31-18-2 on Eagles picks) supports the Washington Commanders (-6.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles, noting Philadelphia's offensive injuries including quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
R.J. White, SportsLine's top NFL expert since 2017, leans toward the Seattle Seahawks (-3) covering against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, pointing to Seattle's league-leading pass defense and Chicago's struggles on defense.
