Major League Baseball's free-agent market may heat up significantly in November despite earlier expectations of a slow month, as the current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1 and a lockout appears likely.
November 2021 precedent suggests heavy spending
In November 2021, MLB teams committed more than $1.7 billion to free agents just before the last CBA expired and owners locked out players. The Texas Rangers alone spent over $560 million on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien, who later helped the franchise win its first World Series title in 2023. Five players signed nine-figure contracts in the weeks leading up to that lockout. With more than 140 players becoming free agents the day after the World Series, many prefer to sign before a work stoppage to secure housing, schooling for children, and peace of mind.
NPB players face a hard Dec. 1 deadline
Unlike the last lockout, MLB has declined to amend its posting agreement with Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league. Three top-50 free agents — Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato, Seibu Lions right-hander Kaima Taira, and Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Hiromi Itoh — were posted on Nov. 1 and would normally have a 45-day window. Because players cannot sign MLB contracts during a lockout, they must finalize deals by Dec. 1 or return to Japan for the 2027 season.
Tarik Skubal expected to trigger domino effect
Tarik Skubal, regarded as the best free agent on the market, is expected to sign before the lockout, according to ESPN. Several big spenders — including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets — are pursuing him. The teams that miss out could quickly pivot to secondary targets, as happened last offseason when the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker and the Mets promptly agreed to a contract with Bo Bichette. Once the top starter comes off the board, a rush for remaining pitchers like Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers is likely.
New CBA rules likely to be phased in
Even if a salary cap is adopted in the next CBA, it is unlikely to be fully implemented in 2027. MLB has expressed willingness to phase in a cap over several years, and big-payroll clubs such as the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees would need time to adjust. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told Sportsnet last month: "You prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way. Any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system. I don't think any new system adopted would cause for immediate action." This gives all teams incentive to spend freely now and have contracts grandfathered into the new economic system.
With the Dec. 1 deadline looming, the hot stove could burn bright over the next four weeks as clubs and players act before a potential lockout freezes the market.
