Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball, is set to hit free agency this winter. Industry experts anticipate he will surpass the current records for both total guaranteed value and average annual value (AAV) for a pitcher.
Current Market Benchmarks
Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the total value record with a 12-year, $325 million deal signed before the 2024 season. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole follows closely at nine years and $324 million. For AAV, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the pitcher record at $43.33 million per year (Shohei Ohtani's $70 million AAV is excluded as a two-way player).
Expert Contract Predictions
CBS Sports analysts offered three distinct projections for Skubal's next deal:
Mike Axisa: Seven years, $325.5 million ($46.5 million AAV). This would break both the AAV and total guarantee records for a pitcher. Axisa expects opt-out clauses, noting agent Scott Boras's history of record-breaking contracts.
Dayn Perry: Eight years, $350 million. Perry believes Skubal will benefit from an aggressive pre-lockout market and a thin free-agent class, outweighing concerns about elbow issues that delayed his 2024 season.
Matt Snyder: Eight years, $400 million. Snyder predicts the highest guarantee and AAV, though he suspects team reluctance to commit to lengthy pitcher deals due to injury risk may slightly suppress the years.
All three projections exceed Yamamoto's $325 million total and the $43.33 million AAV benchmark, signaling a historic payday for the 27-year-old left-hander.
