Week 10 of the college football season features a slate of tight betting lines and high-profile ranked matchups. In the SEC alone, Alabama visits LSU as a 5.5-point underdog, Georgia travels to Ole Miss at +3.5, and Texas faces Missouri at +2.5. A top-5 showdown sees No. 1 Miami at No. 4 Notre Dame, with the Fighting Irish favored by 5.5 points. Out west, the BYU-Utah rivalry resumes with Utah favored by 5.5 at home.
Proven Model Projections
SportsLine's computer model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, entered Week 10 with an 80-77 record on top-rated picks this season. The model identifies several strong plays, including Ohio State (-7.5, 46.5) covering against Oregon in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Despite a recent loss at USC, freshman quarterback Luke Fahey is expected to perform better at home against an Oregon defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but three Big Ten teams. The Buckeyes have covered 80% of home games since the start of 2025 and are projected to win by double digits, covering more than 60% of simulations.
Another highlighted pick is Oklahoma (+6.5, 45.5) covering at Florida. The Gators have lost three of four games, each by 19-plus points. Quarterback instability persists after Aaron Philo was benched against Georgia and replacement Tramell Jones committed two turnovers. Meanwhile, Oklahoma's John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards with four passing touchdowns and zero turnovers over his last two games. Florida leads the SEC in penalty yards, and the model projects the Over to hit in 53% of simulations.
Projected Upsets and Full Schedule
The model also projects three upsets in ranked matchups according to poll rankings. Detailed picks for every FBS game are available via SportsLine. Notable Week 10 games include:
Tuesday, Nov. 3: Ohio at Akron (+14, 50.5); Buffalo at Miami-Ohio (-6, 44.5). Wednesday, Nov. 4: Toledo at Sacramento State (+25.5, 53.5); Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-1.5, 44.5). Thursday, Nov. 5: UTSA at FAU (+7, 72.5); James Madison at Southern Miss (+14.5, 58.5). Friday, Nov. 6: Virginia Tech at SMU (-6, 55.5); Nebraska at Illinois (+4.5, 50.5); TCU at Arizona (-8.5, 43.5). Saturday, Nov. 7: BYU at Utah (-5.5, 48.5); Texas at Missouri (+2.5, 43.5); UCLA at Minnesota (+5.5, 39.5); Alabama at LSU (-5.5, 52.5); Cincinnati at Houston (-11, 62.5); Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5, 46.5); Kentucky at Tennessee (-6.5, 50.5); Air Force at Army (-3, 45.5); Miami at Notre Dame (-5.5, 57.5); Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5, 39.5); Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5, 56.5); Oklahoma at Florida (-6.5, 45.5). Odds are subject to change.
