The NFL's Week 9 schedule features a heavy slate of cross-conference matchups, including an international game in Madrid, with several point spreads of a touchdown or more. According to the latest odds, the Cincinnati Bengals are 3.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons in Spain, while the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points against the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers are 9.5-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Seattle Seahawks are 11.5-point favorites versus the Arizona Cardinals, marking the largest spread of the week.
SportsLine's computer model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to the 2024 season. The model projects the Washington Commanders (+5.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams nearly 60% of the time, citing Washington's plus-seven turnover differential and strong rushing attack with quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Rams have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, allowing 234 rushing yards to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 5.
Another highlighted pick has the Chiefs (-9.5) covering against the Jets. Kansas City has covered both games as a favorite of more than a touchdown this season and is 4-1 against the spread in its last five such instances. The model forecasts the Jets' offense to be held to 3.8 yards per carry and quarterback Geno Smith to fall short of 200 passing yards, while the over on the 46.5-point total hits in nearly 60% of simulations.
The week's highest over/under is 52.5 points for the Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts game. With only two teams on bye, the full 15-game slate includes Thursday's Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens matchup and a Monday night finale between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings. All updated spreads, totals, and the model's picks for every game are available through SportsLine.
