The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos meet in an AFC West rematch with significant division implications in NFL Week 8. The Chiefs (5-1) visit the Broncos (5-2) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET.
Kansas City won the first meeting 31-10 in Week 1. The Chiefs enter on the heels of their first loss, a 20-3 defeat at Seattle, while Denver has won three consecutive games. The Broncos have won the last three home meetings between the teams. Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain II is set to return after missing three games with an ankle injury.
Oddsmakers list Kansas City as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5 points. The money line has the Chiefs at -112 and the Broncos at -103.
A proven simulation model that has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception projects the game to go under the total. The under has hit in five of seven Broncos games and four of six Chiefs games this season. Kansas City has held three of six opponents to 10 points or fewer, while Denver ranks in the bottom 10 in both rushing and passing offense but has limited its last three opponents to between 14 and 17 points.
The Chiefs' offense is led by running back Kenneth Walker III, who has accumulated 701 rushing yards. Denver prefers a run-first approach. With both teams aiming to control possessions, the model forecasts 41 combined points and sees value on the under 55% of the time. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations.
