NFL Week 8 longshot parlay picks from a proven computer simulation model highlight several high-value propositions, including the Indianapolis Colts scoring the first touchdown as 10-point underdogs at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Colts First-Score Trend
The Colts have scored the game's first touchdown in each of their last 13 games as road underdogs under head coach Shane Steichen. A Colts first touchdown pays +441, while an Indianapolis field goal as the first score is +402 and a Jaguars field goal is +324. Despite the first-score success, Indianapolis is just 3-10 straight-up over that 13-game span, making a parlay leg of Colts scoring first and losing on the money line a +250 proposition.
Other First-Score Options
Additional longshot first-score plays include a Tennessee Titans touchdown at +429 versus the Cincinnati Bengals (12.5-point underdogs) and a Miami Dolphins touchdown at +333 against the New England Patriots (7-point underdogs).
Model Parlay Projects $1.2 Million Payout
The simulation model, which runs 10,000 iterations per game, has produced a six-leg parlay that would return over $1.2 million on a $10 wager. The model enters Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, up more than $5,000 for $100 players.
Buccaneers Narrow Victory Over Falcons
One featured leg backs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1-6 points against the Atlanta Falcons at +290. Each of the last six meetings between the teams has been decided by that margin. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has a 15:4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio at home versus 8:6 on the road. The Buccaneers scored 43 points against Carolina in Baker Mayfield's return, while Atlanta may be without starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson due to groin injuries. Tampa Bay ranks second in run defense and third in run offense, limiting Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to a career-low 46.3 rushing yards per game against the Buccaneers. The model's simulations project a three-point Buccaneers win.
Additional Parlay Legs
The parlay also includes five other Week 8 selections, among them a touchdown scorer prop priced at +2500.
