A computer model simulating every NFL game 10,000 times has identified five confident best bets for Week 9, with a successful parlay returning nearly +3000. The model, which has produced a 60-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024, highlights the Over 39.5 points in the Cardinals vs. Seahawks matchup as a top play, hitting in 76% of simulations.
Key Week 9 matchups include the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings as 3-point home underdogs against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, and the 6-1 San Francisco 49ers hosting the Las Vegas Raiders as 10-point favorites. The Arizona Cardinals, coming off an overtime win over Dallas, face the Seattle Seahawks without quarterback Sam Darnold due to a quad injury; Gardner Minshew will start for Arizona.
The model notes the Over has hit in six of Arizona's last 10 games and three of Seattle's last five. Seattle's offense, led by backup Drew Lock and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, scored 31 points in Lock's previous start. Arizona's attack features running back Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown against Dallas, and tight end Trey McBride with 66 receptions for 544 yards and five touchdowns.
Other games with notable lines include Rams vs. Commanders (+4.5), Texans vs. Chargers (+5.5), and Buccaneers vs. Bears (-6) on Sunday Night Football. The model has identified four additional matchups where it says the line is significantly off, with multiple spread picks hitting well over 50% of the time.
