The NFL survivor pool experienced several upsets in Week 8 with losses by Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games. Notable line movements include the Cardinals vs. Seahawks spread dropping from -12.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Popular survivor picks like the Seahawks may already be used by many participants, leading attention to other favorites such as the Texans (-6) against the Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, and the 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
Model Analysis and Key Matchup
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. For the Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET game at Gillette Stadium, the model is not confident in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites over the 5-3 Green Bay Packers. New England rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat Miami 24-19 in Week 8, while Green Bay is 2-2 on the road behind quarterback Jordan Love (61.5% completion, 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). The Patriots will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England winning by just one point, suggesting better survivor options exist. Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that wins outright in nearly 80% of simulations, though the specific selection remains undisclosed.
