The NBA's revised draft lottery format, which penalizes the three worst teams with fewer lottery balls, has created a "relegation zone" battle to avoid the bottom three standings. Two weeks into the 2026-27 season, seven teams have emerged as the most likely candidates to finish in that zone, ranked from least to most likely.
The Utah Jazz (1-7) sit seventh despite returning talent like Jusuf Nurkić and Jaren Jackson Jr., as their offense sputters around No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson. The Phoenix Suns (2-5) struggle with internal chemistry, poor defense, and Devin Booker's declining efficiency. The Brooklyn Nets (2-6) lack All-Star talent, turn the ball over frequently, and face conflicting incentives because they owe their first-round pick to the Houston Rockets. The Sacramento Kings (1-7) are the only team without draft-pick obligations, but their roster built around rookie Darius Acuff Jr. is ill-equipped to win.
The Los Angeles Clippers (1-7) rank third due to severe ball-handling issues, a depleted draft capital after salary-cap violations, and veterans like Brook Lopez and Kris Dunn who could be traded. The Milwaukee Bucks (1-7) are second-worst, under investigation for cap circumvention, with a jumbled roster after trading their franchise player and no control of their pick until 2031. The Chicago Bulls (1-7) are the clear worst team, posting a net rating nearly five points worse than the next team, ranking bottom-five in paint defense, three-point defense, turnover points allowed, and rebounding, while also having incentive to stay bad to avoid locking themselves out of a stronger 2028 draft class.
Analysts note that the new 3-2-1 lottery system was designed to discourage tanking, but several teams' draft-pick obligations and rebuild timelines create perverse incentives to lose. The Bulls, Clippers, and Bucks are the official picks to occupy the bottom three come May.
