The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race takes place Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with the title to be decided among Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin.
Larson enters as the +410 favorite with a 67-point lead over Bell and a 70-point advantage over Hamlin. Other notable odds include Ryan Blaney (+700), Tyler Reddick (+750), Chase Briscoe (+850), and William Byron (+1100). Briscoe will start on the pole after a qualifying time of 32.396 seconds.
Mike McClure's simulation model, which has predicted 34 winners since 2021, fades Larson despite his favorite status, projecting he barely cracks the top five. The model cites Larson's recent struggles at comparable tracks and his ability to clinch the championship without a high finish.
Conversely, the model is high on Ty Gibbs at +1700, noting his third-place finish last week and Joe Gibbs Racing's record nine wins at Homestead. Gibbs has two Cup victories this season and 13 top-five finishes.
McClure also identifies two longshots at +2000 or longer that could contend for the lead. Full picks are available via SportsLine.
