The NFL survivor pool saw several upsets in Week 8, with Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets losing. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games. The Cardinals vs. Seahawks spread shifted from -12.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Many participants have already used the Seahawks, so alternatives like the Texans (-6) against the Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, or the 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye against the Raiders are being considered. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
SportsLine Projection Model Analysis
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. The model is not confident in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites over the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. New England rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat Miami 24-19 in Week 8. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road, led by quarterback Jordan Love, who has completed 61.5% of passes for 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions. His top targets are Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four touchdowns). The Patriots, led by Drake Maye (67.1% completion, 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions), will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England winning by just one point, suggesting better favorite options exist.
Model's Top Survivor Pick
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that many have not used in survivor pools, giving it an outright win in nearly 80% of simulations. The specific team is available only through SportsLine.
