Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has emerged as a leading candidate for the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but his high rate of turnover-worthy plays under pressure has drawn scrutiny from analysts.
Through Week 9 of the 2026 season, Mestemaker has recorded seven turnover-worthy plays on 54 pressured dropbacks, a 13.0% rate that more than doubles the 5.8% median for first-round quarterbacks in historical comparisons, according to Pro Football Focus data. Only Caleb Williams (15.3% in 2023) and Trevor Lawrence (13.2% in 2020) posted higher rates in their final college seasons among recent first-round picks.
Unlike Williams and Lawrence, whose elevated rates were one-year spikes after better prior seasons, Mestemaker's struggles have persisted across two programs. His turnover-worthy play rate under pressure was 8.3% in 2025 at North Texas before rising to 13.0% this season at Oklahoma State, combining for a 10.3% rate over 126 pressured dropbacks.
Despite the concerns, Mestemaker's tape shows NFL-caliber arm talent, anticipation, and the ability to attack all three levels of the defense. He has improved his sack avoidance, dropping from a 21% sack rate under pressure last season to 11% this year, though his yards per attempt in those situations has fallen from 5.6 to 4.5.
Historical precedents offer mixed signals. Patrick Mahomes (8.5% rate, 9.4 YPA) and Sam Darnold (10.5%, 11.0 YPA) offset risky throws with big-play production, while Jordan Love (10.9%, 2.8 YPA) and Josh Allen (8.9%, 6.7 YPA) were drafted highly despite poor pressured metrics and developed into stars. Mestemaker's favorite quarterback, Allen, serves as a personal inspiration.
Analysts note Mestemaker's relative inexperience — he never started a varsity game at quarterback in high school, playing primarily punter and safety before walking on at North Texas. His continued development, particularly in decision-making when defenses disrupt timing, will likely determine his draft position.
