The NFL season reaches its unofficial midway point this weekend, with teams seeing their margin for error shrink as the playoff picture takes shape. The NFC North stands out as the most competitive division, where even the last-place Green Bay Packers (5-3) would qualify for the postseason if it started today. Using SportsLine projections, here are the five games with the most significant playoff implications.
Packers at Patriots
Green Bay (56% current playoff chance) visits New England (63%) in a matchup of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Drake Maye. A Packers win raises their odds to 67%, while a loss drops them to 46%. The Patriots would move to 73% with a victory but fall to 51% with a defeat. Both teams face brutal upcoming schedules, making this a pivotal swing game.
Rams at Commanders
The 4-4 Rams (28% chance) travel to face the Commanders (31%). Los Angeles, a preseason Super Bowl favorite, cannot afford to drop below .500; a win lifts them to 39%, a loss plunges them to 18%. Washington, lingering in the weak NFC East, could boost its hopes to 42% with an upset.
Buccaneers at Bears
Tampa Bay (54%) visits Chicago (87%) on Sunday night. The Bears have won three straight and could reach 7-2 with a victory (92% chance). The Buccaneers have rebounded from an 0-4 start to lead the NFC South, powered by a dominant running game and defense. A Tampa Bay win would push them to 67%, while a loss drops them to 48%.
Cardinals at Seahawks
Seattle (58%) hosts Arizona (2%) in a game the Seahawks must win to stay relevant. A victory raises Seattle to 63%, but a loss crashes them to 38%. The Cardinals, coming off a Gardner Minshew-led comeback over Dallas, are playing spoiler with minimal playoff hopes.
Bengals at Falcons (in Spain)
Cincinnati (89%) faces Atlanta (21%) in the NFL's international game in Madrid. The Bengals can keep pace in the AFC North with a win (93%), while the Falcons need a victory (30%) to stay in the NFC South race alongside Tampa Bay and Carolina.
