Early Average Draft Position (ADP) data from the NFBC platform offers a first glimpse at how fantasy managers are valuing players for the 2027 season. As of the latest update, only 18 best‑ball drafts have been completed, so the sample is small and noisy, but several notable trends have emerged.
Ohtani Still a Top‑Two Pick
Shohei Ohtani remains the consensus No. 2 overall selection despite a 2026 campaign in which he finished as the No. 40 hitter and will turn 33 mid‑season. His dual‑role injury risk and declining stolen‑base output are concerns, yet his 2024 .300/50‑HR season and a 2025 pace of .293 with 40 homers keep him in elite territory.
Judge Slips Toward End of First Round
Aaron Judge, a perennial top‑five pick, is now going near the end of round one. The 35‑year‑old missed 106 games in 2026 and saw his strikeout rate jump from 24% to 30%, narrowing the gap between his expected wOBA on contact and the next best hitters.
Rookie Griffin Commands Second‑Round Price
Konnor Griffin, who played 80 games as a 19‑year‑old rookie, is being drafted in the second round. Doubling his counting stats projects a .272 average, 12 homers, 86 runs, 66 RBI and 46 steals — a pace comparable to Bobby Witt Jr.’s 2025 output. A stronger finish (.297, 16 HR, 50 SB over his last 61 games) suggests upside that could justify the cost.
Misiorowski Clear SP1, Skenes Holds Top‑10 Spot
Jacob Misiorowski leads all starting pitchers with a 9.12 ADP, well ahead of Tarik Skubal at 14.06. Paul Skenes sits at SP8 (ADP ~21‑40) despite a velocity drop in his third season; his career 2.62 ERA, 2.83 xERA and 2.73 FIP keep projection systems bullish.
Wheeler, Guerrero Jr., Raleigh, Betts, Bregman Among Notable Movers
Zack Wheeler (SP15) carries risk as a soon‑to‑be 37‑year‑old returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has fallen to a top‑75 price, his cheapest since debut, reflecting inconsistent top‑30 finishes. Cal Raleigh remains a top‑100 pick in two‑catcher formats but drops further in one‑catcher leagues. Mookie Betts, now 34, shows declining speed and batting average, pushing him outside the top 12 at shortstop. Alex Bregman sits outside the top 100 overall, eighth among third basemen, despite a solid 2026 at Wrigley Field.
