UTSA travels to Boca Raton to face Florida Atlantic on Thursday night in a key American Athletic Conference matchup with College Football Playoff implications for the Roadrunners. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, with clear skies and a low of 72°F expected. UTSA enters as a 7-point favorite, and the over/under is set at a season-high 72.5 points.
The first CFP rankings placed Boise State as the lone Group of 6 team in the top 25 at No. 25, while UTSA (7-1, 4-0 AAC) was unranked. The SportsLine Projection Model gives Boise State a 77.7% chance to reach the playoff, compared to just 0.7% for UTSA. Coach Jeff Traylor's team is +600 to make the playoff, and a loss Thursday would effectively end those hopes.
UTSA's offense averages 33.5 points per game, led by senior quarterback Owen McCown, who has thrown for 1,751 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions in 35 consecutive starts. Running back Will Henderson III has added 664 yards and five touchdowns on 109 carries.
Florida Atlantic counters with an even more prolific offense, averaging 37.8 points per game. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has completed 227 of 316 passes for 2,536 yards and 23 touchdowns against five interceptions. Wide receiver Easton Messer leads the nation with 74 catches for 898 yards and nine touchdowns, and he has also returned two punts for scores. However, the Owls' defense allows 468.9 yards and 35.8 points per game.
Betting trends show heavy action on the over, with 86% of money and 60% of tickets backing it, while UTSA is receiving 69% of the against-the-spread handle but only 28% of bets. The SportsLine model projects a total of 63 points. FAU leads the all-time series 3-2 and 2-1 in Boca Raton, but UTSA has won the last two meetings, including the most recent trip to Florida in 2023.
