With a loaded slate of top-25 matchups, Week 10 of the college football season offers several high-profile betting opportunities. The column highlights six key selections, each backed by statistical trends and situational analysis.
Games of the Week
No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame: Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney is out with an ankle injury, lowering the Hurricanes' offensive ceiling. Miami's defense has allowed 93 points in its last three games against offenses ranked no higher than 47th in points per possession. Notre Dame's offense ranks third nationally in points per drive and fourth in success rate, scoring on 59% of possessions. The pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 31.5 (-104).
No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU: Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has struggled against elite pass rushes, being sacked nine times in losses to Georgia and Tennessee. LSU's defense ranks sixth in pressure rate and second in sack rate. Alabama's offense ranks 105th in pressure rate allowed. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has improved ball security recently. The pick: LSU -5.5 (-110).
Lock of the Week
Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan State has lost six straight and is dealing with numerous defensive injuries. Michigan's defense shut down Rutgers in the second half last week, and new starting quarterback Tommy Carr looked comfortable. The Wolverines are favored by 13.5 points at home. The pick: Michigan -13.5 (-106).
Fade of the Week
Cincinnati at No. 17 Houston: Cincinnati was blown out 49-25 by Utah last week after an upset win over Texas Tech, playing two tough opponents in consecutive weeks. Houston had a bye week to recover from a loss to Utah. The pick: Houston -10.5 (-112).
Principle Play of the Week
Texas State at Oregon State: Both offenses rank in the top 13 nationally in scoring (Oregon State 40.1 PPG, Texas State 38.1 PPG), but defenses are poor (Texas State 124th allowing 32.0 PPG). Oregon State's offense has slowed recently, Texas State scores fewer points on the road, and the forecast calls for rain and 35 mph wind gusts. The pick: Under 72.5 (-110).
Upset of the Week
No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State: Oregon's offense looked more cohesive after firing its offensive coordinator, and backup quarterback Dylan Raiola is more experienced than Ohio State's true freshman Luke Fahey, who is making his first home start. Oregon's defense has improved lately. The pick: Oregon (+245) to win outright.
Last week's record: 2-4 overall, season record 23-31 (-9.39 units).
