With the 2026-27 MLB offseason underway following the Milwaukee Brewers' World Series championship, analysts are offering bold predictions for the upcoming free-agent and trade market. Here are ten notable forecasts for the winter.
Tarik Skubal to break pitching contract record
Free-agent ace Tarik Skubal, represented by Scott Boras, is predicted to sign a deal closer to $400 million than $300 million, surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million record for a pitcher. Skubal posted a 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts over 158.2 innings in 2026.
Brewers extend William Contreras
Milwaukee is expected to buck its trend of trading stars before free agency by signing World Series MVP William Contreras to a long-term extension, possibly six years at $24 million per year ($144 million total), which would be the richest catcher contract since Will Smith's $140 million deal with the Dodgers.
Astros trade Jeremy Peña, keep Isaac Paredes
New general manager Randy Flores is forecast to trade shortstop Jeremy Peña, who is a year from free agency, while retaining third baseman Isaac Paredes. The move would mirror the Kyle Tucker trade and address Houston's pitching needs.
Braves to trade a core member
Atlanta may shake up its offense by trading Ozzie Albies, as Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley are deemed unlikely to move. The Braves' offense struggled after June 1 and in the NLDS.
Trevor Rogers to out-earn Freddy Peralta
Left-hander Trevor Rogers, despite less pedigree than Freddy Peralta, is projected to sign a richer contract, perhaps around $125 million compared to Peralta's $120 million, due to his younger age and perceived untapped upside.
Teoscar Hernández returns to Toronto
The Los Angeles Dodgers could trade outfielder Teoscar Hernández back to the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, clearing a roster spot for prospect Josue De Paula and providing Toronto with power.
Cubs and Yankees to make a trade
Chicago's need for rotation help and surplus of young position players (like Matt Shaw) align with New York's need for infield help and available starting pitching (like Will Warren), making a trade likely.
Mariners to trade a starter for a bat
Seattle, with a deep rotation including Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller, is predicted to trade one starter — possibly Kirby, two years from free agency — to acquire offensive help after Randy Arozarena's departure.
Teruaki Sato to double Munetaka Murakami's contract
Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato, set to be posted, could sign a four-year, $68 million deal with an opt-out, doubling Murakami's two-year, $34 million White Sox contract, as Sato is seen as a better defensive bet at a scarce position.
Seven top-10 free agents to sign before Dec. 1
With the collective bargaining agreement expiring Dec. 1 and a potential lockout looming, a flurry of November signings is forecast, with at least seven of the top 10 free agents expected to agree to terms before the deadline, contrasting with the slow pace of recent offseasons.
