The Toledo Rockets (6-2, 3-1 MAC) face the Sacramento State Hornets (2-7, 1-5) in a Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California. Toledo enters on a 45-38 win over Western Michigan on Oct. 24, while Sacramento State defeated Kent State 31-10 on Friday. The Rockets are 2-1 on the road; the Hornets are 2-3 at home in 2026.
Toledo is a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5 points. The money line lists Toledo at -2857 and Sacramento State at +1550.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total to go under 52.5 points. The under has hit in two of Toledo's last three games and in six of Sacramento State's past nine matchups. The model projects Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter to throw for over 260 yards and two touchdowns; he has 2,244 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Sacramento State running back Isaiah Ene is expected to rush for more than 50 yards and a touchdown; he has 410 yards on 77 carries (5.3 average) with three touchdowns. The model calls for 52 combined points, with the under hitting 53% of simulations.
Additionally, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in over 70% of simulations. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
