The Massachusetts Minutemen will aim to end a four-game losing streak when they host the Ball State Cardinals in a Mid-American Conference matchup on Wednesday night. Ball State enters after a 34-17 victory over Sacramento State on October 24, while UMass fell 35-16 at Connecticut on October 23. The Cardinals hold a 3-5 overall record and are 2-2 in MAC play, sitting seventh in the conference, and have gone 1-4 on the road this season. The Minutemen are 4-4 overall and 1-3 in conference, tied for 10th in the MAC, with a 2-2 home record in 2026.
Kickoff and Odds
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Massachusetts. UMass opens as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 48.5 points. The money line lists UMass at -113 and Ball State at +118.
Model Projections
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, leans toward the over on the total. The over has hit in eight of the last 10 Ball State games. Both offenses have shown scoring ability: Massachusetts ranks fourth in the MAC with 26.5 points per game, while Ball State is seventh. However, the Cardinals' defense allows a conference-worst 35.3 points per game. The model projects Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster to throw for more than 200 yards and one touchdown; he has accumulated 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns this season. UMass quarterback William Watson III is projected to exceed 225 passing yards and two touchdowns, having thrown for 1,025 yards and eight touchdowns. The computer forecasts a combined 52 points, with the over hitting in 57% of simulations.
Spread Selection
In addition to the total, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
