The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) for Thursday Night Football at M&T Bank Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Jacksonville enters on a four-win streak, most recently a 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while Baltimore lost 36-10 to the Buffalo Bills.
The Ravens will start rookie third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano after injuries sidelined Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe). Sportsbooks list the Jaguars as 10-point favorites with an over/under of 40 points.
SportsLine's simulation model, which has returned a 60-51 record on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, projects the game to go over the total. The over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last ten. The model forecasts 48 combined points, with the over hitting in 60% of simulations.
Jacksonville's offense is led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions in seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten has rushed 110 times for 492 yards and three touchdowns. Baltimore relies on running back Derrick Henry, who has carried 158 times for 632 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games.
The model also identifies one side of the spread as offering better value, though the specific selection is available through SportsLine.
